Determination of the Human Development Index in Regencies/Cities of East Java Province for 2019–2023 Through a Static Model Approach

Abstract

This research examines how life expectancy, the poverty headcount, labor force participation, and regional economic output shape the Human Development Index (HDI) across East Java's regencies and cities between 2019 and 2023. Panel data techniques were applied, with the Fixed Effects Model chosen after Chow and Hausman testing confirmed it as the best fit for capturing both cross-regional and time-based variation. Three of the four predictors life expectancy, poverty levels, and regional GDP were found to positively and significantly shape HDI outcomes, whereas labor force participation showed a positive direction without reaching statistical significance. This limited influence likely stems from East Java's labor market being heavily concentrated in informal, low-productivity work, compounded by uneven access to quality employment across the province. Collectively, the four variables account for a striking 99.90% of HDI variation (R² = 0.9990), underscoring the model's strong explanatory power. The evidence points to health, economic hardship, employment structure, and growth as core levers for human development progress. Policy efforts in East Java should therefore center on strengthening human capital, revitalizing productive sectors, and closing regional development gaps.